
case study: scope 4 emissions – calculating avoided emissions in reviewing the potential benefits of domestically produced gas for meeting NDCs
Avoided Emissions: Analysing the option of domestic gas as a transition fuel.
at a glance
challenges
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No plan for domestic gas: Neither the host country’s NDCs nor the National Energy Strategy had considered the emissions reductions that could be provided through the use of domestically produced gas to displace more emissions-intensive imported hydrocarbons from the grid and industry to lower emissions.
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Negative perceptions of all fossil fuels: Investors, customers, and society groups are demanding a move away from fossil fuels without acknowledging the difference in emissions between fuel types and the role domestic gas has as a transition fuel.
outcomes
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Review of the country’s NDCs and National Energy Strategy
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Calculation of emissions impact of domestic vs imported energy
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Board and investor ready presentation for stakeholder engagement
As the transition to net zero continues to pick up speed, energy companies are under pressure to show how they are playing a role in decarbonisation and working to reduce emissions. Countries are also under pressure to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and to find ways to decarbonise.
We worked with an African based energy business with both gas and renewable assets to show how their development and production from a natural gas field was helping to displace imported hydrocarbons from the host country’s national grid and local industry, providing domestic energy that would reduce emissions and help the host country towards meeting their Nationally Determined Contributions.
objectives
A UK diversified energy company sought to highlight the emissions savings and the potential benefit to the country’s decarbonisation plans of their domestic gas development. The company wanted to understand what emissions savings may occur from the domestic production of gas as opposed to the importing of hydrocarbons to support power for the grid and domestic industry.
The company’s investors wanted to understand saved emissions to assess how the project contributed towards climate targets during this transition period. The analysis undertaken was designed to assess the impact of replacing imported LNG with domestically produced gas to displace more emissions intensive hydrocarbons from the national grid and domestic industry.
steps taken
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Research of the host country’s NDCs and National Energy Strategy
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Provided a base case for expected emissions reductions if the client’s project did not go ahead
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Develop a detailed understanding of the client’s project
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Assessed the expected volume of produced gas that would be sold domestically to the national grid and local industry
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Emissions calculations
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Emissions expected from the domestically produced gas, assuming end use combustion
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Comparison between LNG gas emissions intensity and domestically produced gas emissions intensity
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Calculation of avoided emissions if the national grid and industry were supplied with domestic gas from the development rather than imported LNG
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Data-supported argument for why using domestic gas rather than LNG would be better suited to helping the host country reach their ultimate decarbonisation goals as set out in the NDCs
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Presented comparison of base case and avoided emissions through domestic gas supply to client with materials and supporting data available for stakeholder discussions
results
comparison of emissions impacts
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Determined the impact on emissions of developing domestically produced gas to support decarbonisation of the grid and industry over emissions-intensive hydrocarbon imports
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Calculated avoided emissions of over 2 million tCO2 annually if domestic production was to go ahead, as opposed to the current plan in the country’s National Energy Strategy
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Highlighted how a domestic development could help the host country meet their NDCs in this transition period
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Transparent methodology
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Provided referenced and clear methodology for emissions calculations and comparisons so that results can hold up to scrutiny